In the last ten years, the danger picture on eight thousand meters has changed substantially. We analyze the possible factors and what the situation is like in these times.
By Carlos Eduardo González – Alpinismonline Editorial Team
Cover photo: Nanga Parbat from the Diamir side – Credit Tahsin Anwar Ali
Reviewing some reports in this regard, made a few years ago, we can infer that the situation in recent times, regarding what we could call «criminality» of the fourteen mountains with more than eight thousand meters, has changed. Not radically, but in some positions of a «ranking», which we could elaborate with some figures that I have taken the trouble to compile in these last few days.
I reviewed, as I said, those reports, mainly two of them, which spoke of K2, published in 2010, and of Annapurna, in the same year, with figures supplied at that time by the Himalayan Database, and the 8000ers site.
Now, in January 2025, with the source for Nepal’s eight-thousanders based entirely on the Himalayan database, with its solemn task, created by Elizabeth Hawley, now directed by Billi Bierling, and the kind help of AI for the rest of the eight-thousanders in Pakistan and China, some values have changed.
Back then, Annapurna and K2 were competing for the daring trophy of being the deadliest. Today, Nanga Parbat has clearly surpassed them.
Let’s see then, the ranking, from the deadliest, at least, where we show the number of ascents, the number of deaths, and the consequent mortality indicator:
With a mortality rate of 20.7%, Nanga Parbat is now far outstripping Annapurna, which has moved up to second place, six points below. K2, which fifteen years ago was competing for the top spot in this table, was surprisingly overtaken by Dhaulagiri.
Kangchenjunga has also dropped, also surprisingly overtaken by Shisha Pangma, although I would take this figure with a grain of salt. Remember that Shisha Pangma is the only one of the fourteen that is entirely in Chinese territory, and the information provided by this country is always very limited and covered with a certain halo of suspicion, so for now we will leave Shisha Pangma there, with reservations.
In any case, this is not the important point. The important thing, in my opinion, is in the first places and the enormous leap that Nanga Parbat made, especially in the last decade.
The changes in the second half of the table have not been important or relevant. Everest, the highest mountain in the world, with 12,884 officially recorded ascents and 326 deaths, is comfortably in eleventh place. That does not mean that we classify it among the most accessible of the eight-thousanders. There is a hidden factor there, which contributes, in my humble opinion, to all the figures that we can see in the preceding table.
Everest has a quality that the rest of the eight-thousanders do not have, except for K2 and Kangchenjunga, which are somewhat close. And that is its extreme height. Everest has a precise height: 8,848m, which is exactly at the limit of human endurance. If it were two hundred meters higher, it would be a different story.
It seems as if nature conscientiously sculpted Everest to test the skill of human beings, their capabilities, and above all, their egos.
But I mentioned a couple of paragraphs back a hidden quality that has influenced all these figures and why Everest is in that hypothetical eleventh place. In my opinion, it should be a bit higher.
I also stressed that this is a personal opinion, and we will develop it now. That factor, that hidden quality, is commercial expeditions. Let’s see how they influence all this.
In the last fifteen years, they have exploded, especially in Nepal. Many Sherpa climbers, previously employed by professional commercial expeditions, almost all of them foreign, saw that they had the opportunity, with their knowledge and physiological conditions, to develop their own companies.
In the last decade, they began to explode almost exponentially, offering much more convenient services, economically speaking, to foreigners who desperately wanted to inscribe their name on the list of those who had reached the summit of the world.
And they offered services that competed with and even substantially improved the offerings of those foreign companies that emerged in the time of Robert Hall himself.
The consequence of all this was greater accessibility to reach the highest peak in the world, with a variety of capacity conditions for all tastes. We then find ourselves with local companies managed by professionals, others by adventurers, and others by true kamikazes.
This is how we reached this magnificent figure of 12,884 ascents, most of them achieved in the last decade. Some of these ascents were satisfactory, others complex, and others far-fetched, with consequences for the lives of the clients, most of whom were overflowing with ego, and very little knowledge of what it means to climb a mountain.
Meanwhile, international companies continued on their way, with more prepared clients, in most cases, and with inexorably fatter wallets. But hey, Everest is a necessary evil, and getting up there has its price. Whoever is willing to pay for it, let them do it, that is not objectionable.
As the seasons went by, this activity, initially aimed at Everest, evolved towards other eight-thousanders, the closest, the least complex as possible, but that was not a relevant factor. The relevant factor is the prestige that the name of the mountain can give to the person. What do I mean by this? That climbing Manaslu is not the same as climbing Annapurna. In the same way that there is nothing comparable to climbing Everest.
Thus, the activity of these commercial companies was also replicated in mountains such as Annapurna, Dhaulagiri, Manaslu, although they were already in the latter, etc., etc.
A little over ten years ago, Annapurna was the deadliest of the eight-thousanders, closely followed by K2, which also had a “fever” of commercial expeditions, about five years ago. These Nepalese commercial companies ventured beyond their borders and reached Pakistan, collaborating with a fairly incipient local offer, and putting K2 on the scene. Not all of them made it. Most likely those with the greatest capacity, therefore, “safety”, without this meaning the “panacea” in terms of safety.
Thus, K2 quickly became the second “Everest”, and today, in the middle of the season, we can also see “rows” of summit contenders, on an almost vertical wall wherever you look.
In other words, the activity spread from Everest to other eight-thousanders. But Nanga Parbat is not touched.
It is not easy to venture to Nanga Parbat. And there are several factors here as well. It is the only one away from the centre of eight-thousanders that surrounds the Concordia area where the remaining eight-thousanders of Pakistan live, among other factors.
The main factor, perhaps, if we compare it with Annapurna for example, is that its normal route, the Diamir slope route, is much more complex than the normal Annapurna route. We leave out, of course, the Rupal face of Nanga, and the south face of Annapurna, which are God-level routes.
Nanga Parbat and Annapurna are the two mountains, in my opinion, that will always be at the top of these statistics. Only K2 can come close to them in terms of complexity.
These are two mountains, we could say three, if we include K2, that are not reserved for mountain tourism. Nanga Parbat only admits experienced climbers, professionals in other words.
Unfortunately, K2 is now filled with tourists. Something similar is happening with Kangchenjunga, which was always in the top 5. Today, apparently surpassed in an absurd way, by Shisha Pangma.
The Spanish mountaineer Alberto Iñurrategi (14×8000) reached the summit of Annapurna on May 16, 2002, in the company of the Frenchman Jean-Christophe Lafaille via the E Ridge – N Face traverse. Alberto said about Annapurna:
«It is a mountain with a very complex structure, with glaciers and very vertical walls. The conventional route is already difficult and dangerous, but the other routes are easier, but they involve other risks that are difficult to control. But not only do its geographical characteristics make the work difficult, but the wind can take you to 90 degrees below zero and you have no protection, unless you can go to the north face.
The south face of Annapurna is a mass that stands out above the surrounding geography. It is hit hard by the winds coming from the south-southeast, from the region of the Bay of Bengal, from where the much feared Monsoon advances every year at the time when the peaks are reached in the middle of the Himalayan season, which puts an inexorable brake on the summer season and literally splits it in two.
It has a totally exposed south face that contains all the fury of the monsoon winds from the second half of May. A verticality that increases the dangers by exposing said wall to the constant risk of avalanches.
A similar climatic effect affects K2, Nanga Parbat, and the rest of the eight-thousanders of the Karakoram, but we mention these two because they are the most difficult due to their difficulty.
The monsoon coming from the southeast at the height of the Karakoram, collides with the great giants of more than seven thousand meters. There it meets the warm and dry air that descends from the Taklamakan desert and produces precipitation.
The mountain range consequently absorbs the blow of the monsoon, which is a little less intense than that suffered in the Himalayas, but which also has a factor that the Himalayas have to a lesser extent: the geographical position located between eight and ten degrees further north, that is, more towards the cold.
The city of Kathmandu, capital of Nepal, is located south of the Himalayas. 82% of the annual precipitation that this city receives occurs during the monsoon period. The town of Namche Bazaar, the access point to Mount Everest at the entrance to Sagarmatha National Park, receives 90% of its rainfall during the same period and is also located south of the main chain of the Himalayan mountain range. If we now start moving a little to the east we see that the city of New Delhi receives 84% of the annual rainfall during the Monsoon. Now we continue moving and turn from Delhi to the north towards the Karakoram.
In the Indian territories of Kashmir is the town of Leh, where 44% of its rainfall is during the Monsoon. And a couple of much more graphic cases: The town of Gupis in Pakistan receives 44% during the monsoon season and the town of Chilas 25% although both are located a short distance from each other. What is the reason for this difference then if they are not far from each other? A question that has an answer and that answer is called Nanga Parbat. The 8125m Nanga is located west of Gupis and east of Chilas, that is, it lies between both localities and consequently its south-east east wall receives all the harsh influence of the Monsoon, and stops it.
In this way, the cold is greater in the Karakoram area, compared to the Nepalese Himalayas. Nanga Parbat plays a fundamental role in the climatology of the region, and its walls receive all the influence of the Monsoon in the rainy season, which at that altitude, is in the form of snow.
To conclude, the lower activity in Nanga Parbat, due to these factors that we have mentioned and enumerated, make it advance to the first place in danger today, ten years later, which is not really due to factors of geography or climate, since the first is the same, and the second can vary but in a limited way.
The main factor is human activity. The human being himself, be it called in this case a mountaineer, climber, and his own ambitions, are what forge this scenario that places Nanga Parbat, averaging the third decade of this century, in the first place in terms of danger.
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